New Research Finds Baltimore's Targeted Strategy Directly Responsible for Dramatic Reduction in Violence; Citywide Homicides Dropped 25% Below National Trends

NBER Paper From The UPenn Crime And Justice Lab Outlines How Baltimore's Approach Significantly Reduced Shootings, Homicides, And Carjackings Without Expanding Arrests - With Reductions Outpacing Broader National Trends

BALTIMORE, MD (Wednesday, June 3, 2026) - Today, Baltimore Mayor Brandon M. Scott and the University of Pennsylvania's Crime and Justice Policy Lab announced the release of a new National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) paper that found Baltimore's targeted, community-driven strategy was directly responsible for part of the city's dramatic reduction in violent crime. Based on person-level and quantitative data, the paper outlines how key components of Baltimore's Group Violence Reduction Strategy (GVRS) - including deterrence, incapacitation, services, and community messengers - helped to drive Baltimore's historic 60% reduction in homicides between 2022 - 2025.

Baltimore's reduction in violence stands out even among declining national crime rates, with researchers finding that Baltimore's homicide rate over this period was about 25% below other cities with similar previous trends. The social value of the averted violence is was found to be roughly 35 times the program's first-year spending.

"The partnership between my office, the Baltimore Police Department, and UPenn's Crime and Justice Policy Lab has been instrumental in driving the progress we're seeing in Baltimore," said Baltimore Mayor Brandon M. Scott. "Working alongside community members, outreach workers, and our law enforcement partners, we've been able to deliver sustained reductions in violence across Baltimore, and this new research confirms that we're moving in the right direction. Our work is a model for data-driven, community-led public safety, and I hope it will help other cities looking to get at the root of violence and save lives."

The strong results come from concentrating community intervention resources on the highest-risk individuals associated with violent group dynamics to prevent further harm, while also focusing BPD's attention on groups and individuals responsible for shootings. The strategy successfully challenges a core assumption in the public debate around crime - that meaningful reductions in violence require broad increases in arrests or aggressive, large-scale policing tactics. Despite substantial declines in violence in the Western District, overall arrest levels in the district did not meaningfully increase, and there is no evidence that crime shifted to nearby areas.

"Too often, the conversation assumes that reducing violence requires over-policing or mass surveillance," said Executive Director Ben Struhl. "What this shows is that precision matters - when law enforcement, community partners, and service providers are aligned around the highest-risk individuals, cities can achieve meaningful reductions in violence and minimize broader social costs. We're grateful to Mayor Brandon Scott, Police Commissioner Worley and the Baltimore Police Department, and the City of Baltimore for their leadership and partnership in implementing this strategy, and look forward to continued success."

"The continued reduction in violent crime and gun violence is a testament to the hard work and commitment of the men and women of the Baltimore Police Department," said Baltimore Police Commissioner Richard Worley. "Every day, our members and all our partners are focused on preventing violence, building trust, and making our neighborhoods safer. The findings in this research reinforce what we have seen firsthand, that the Group Violence Reduction Strategy is helping to save lives and making our city safer. While there is more work to do, we remain committed to working alongside our communities to build on this progress and create a safer Baltimore for everyone."

"Baltimore's historic and continuing reductions in violence are proof that balancing opportunity and accountability for those most directly connected to violence works, something this study proves empirically," said Mayor's Office of Neighborhood Safety and Engagement Director Stefanie Mavronis. "As the agency responsible for the coordination and management of the Group Violence Reduction Strategy, MONSE is proud to work alongside our police department, service providers, prosecutors, and the community to advance our collective vision for a better, safer Baltimore."

The NBER paper adds to a growing body of evidence that cities can reduce violence at scale in ways that are both effective and more precisely targeted, without expanding the overall footprint of the criminal legal system. While the reductions in violence are clear, ongoing research is examining how different components of the strategy - including deterrence, targeted enforcement, and service provision - directly contribute to these outcomes.

The Crime and Justice Policy Lab is grateful to Mayor Scott and the City of Baltimore for their leadership and partnership in implementing this strategy.

The full working paper is available here.